Energy Dependence, Trade Balance, and Current Account Sustainability: Evidence From ASEAN-5

Authors

  • Maulidar Agustina Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh 23111, Indonesia
  • M. Shabri Abd. Majid Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh 23111, Indonesia
  • Zia Thahira Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh 23111, Indonesia
  • Lidyana Dinda Financial Analyst Study Program, Politeknik Kutaraja, Aceh, Indonesia
  • Aulia Khairullah Department of Accounting, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh 23111, Indonesia
  • Dwita Sakuntala Development Economics Department, Universitas Pembangunan Panca Budi, Medan, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.60084/eje.v3i2.341

Keywords:

Current account sustainability, Energy trade balance, Trade balance, Panel ARDL, ASEAN-5

Abstract

This study investigates how energy dependence and trade structure influence current-account sustainability in the ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Vietnam) over 2014–2023. Focusing on the region’s vulnerability to energy price volatility and evolving trade patterns, the analysis evaluates long- and short-run relationships between the current account, energy trade balance, overall trade balance, real GDP per capita, and exchange rate movements. A panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model with a Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator is applied, and long-run robustness is verified using panel Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS). The results confirm a stable long-run equilibrium in which both energy and non-energy trade balances significantly and positively contribute to current-account positions. Higher real income and a depreciated exchange rate are also associated with sustained current-account improvements, reflecting capacity expansion and expenditure-switching effects. Short-run adjustments differ across countries, shaped by their import dependence, energy mix, and external balance-sheet conditions. Robustness checks affirm the stability of the estimated long-run relationships. These findings highlight the importance of strengthening energy trade resilience, enhancing non-energy tradable sectors, and maintaining prudent exchange-rate flexibility to support external sustainability in the ASEAN-5.

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Published

2025-10-30

How to Cite

Agustina, M., Majid, M. S. A., Thahira, Z., Dinda, L., Khairullah, A. and Sakuntala, D. (2025) “Energy Dependence, Trade Balance, and Current Account Sustainability: Evidence From ASEAN-5”, Ekonomikalia Journal of Economics, 3(2), pp. 119–131. doi: 10.60084/eje.v3i2.341.

Issue

Vol. 3 No. 2 (2025): October 2025

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Articles

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Copyright (c) 2025 Maulidar Agustina, M. Shabri Abd. Majid, Zia Thahira, Lidyana Dinda, Aulia Khairullah, Dwita Sakuntala

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