Understanding Short-Term and Long-Term Price Fluctuations of Main Staple Food Commodities in Aceh Province, Indonesia: An ARDL Investigation

Authors

  • Hadi Arisyah Putra Economic Bureau, Aceh Regional Secretariat, Banda Aceh 23114, Indonesia
  • Ade Habya Fijay Industry and Trade Office of Aceh, Banda Aceh 23123, Indonesia
  • Suriani Suriani Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh 23111, Indonesia
  • Chenny Seftarita Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh 23111, Indonesia
  • Edi Saputra Ringga Department of Economics, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Development, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, Terengganu 21030, Malaysia
  • Heri Wintara Financial Management Agency of Aceh Tengah, Aceh Tengah 24552, Indonesia
  • Oka Fadliansah Economic Modeling and Data Analytics Unit, Rumoh Riset Institute, Aceh Besar 23371, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.60084/eje.v1i1.50

Keywords:

Staple food commodities, Raw material prices, Rainfall, Price index received by farmers, Autoregressive distributed lag

Abstract

Aceh Province still relies on external sources from other regions for its main staple food commodities, resulting in unpredictable price fluctuations. To address this issue, it is essential to identify the key determinants responsible for these fluctuations and implement suitable preventive measures and policies. Utilizing monthly time-series data from January 2016 to December 2020 and employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, we investigate the short-term and long-term impact of variables like raw material prices, rainfall, and price index received by farmers on the price fluctuations. The results of the ARDL estimation reveal that all selected independent variables play a crucial role and significant in influencing the price fluctuations of main staple food commodities. Armed with these findings, we suggest that policymakers can provide necessary resources to farmers, strengthen weather monitoring systems, and enhance market transparency, thus better controlling future price fluctuations of regional staple food commodities.

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Published

2023-07-07

How to Cite

Putra, H. A., Fijay, A. H., Suriani, S., Seftarita, C., Ringga, E. S., Wintara, H. and Fadliansah, O. (2023) “Understanding Short-Term and Long-Term Price Fluctuations of Main Staple Food Commodities in Aceh Province, Indonesia: An ARDL Investigation”, Ekonomikalia Journal of Economics, 1(1), pp. 26–32. doi: 10.60084/eje.v1i1.50.

Issue

Vol. 1 No. 1 (2023): July 2023

Section

Articles

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Copyright (c) 2023 Hadi Arisyah Putra, Ade Habya Fijay, Suriani Suriani, Chenny Seftarita, Edi Saputra Ringga, Heri Wintara, Oka Fadliansah

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.